What Lies Ahead in Q4?

That’s seems to be the key question these days, and of course no one knows for sure. We tend to look at both average and median sold prices to see where the market is. But those are lagging indicators. Looking at trends is more helpful.

By examining these trends we can see that for both the cities and zip codes, it’s fairly evenly divided between Month-over-Month price increases and decreases. However, Year-over-Year numbers for both zip codes and cities have a majority of price decreases. Yet, Year- to-Date numbers indicate a more stable market.

City-Wide and Regional Trends : of the 30 cities in Central Texas, 47% have experienced a Month-over-Month Price Increase, while 53% have witnessed a decrease. When considering Year-over-Year trends, 8 out of 30 cities (27%) have seen a price increase, while 22 cities (73%) have reported a decrease. As for "Year to Date," 16 cities have witnessed an increase in the median, with 14 having had a decrease.                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Zip Code Analysis : among the 75 zip codes in Central Texas, 48% have reported a Month-over-Month Price Increase, while 51% have seen a decrease. On a Year-over-Year basis, 23 zip codes (31%) have seen a price increase, while 51 zip codes (68%) have experienced a decrease. Year to Date, 43 zip codes have gone up in median price, while 32 have gone down.

A better indicator of where we’re headed is the activity index, which shows the absorption rate of properties that are available. It’s pending properties (those under contract) as a percentage of all properties available both active and pending. The higher the activity index shows that properties are being absorbed which in turn correlates with lower inventory levels. The lower the activity index means a higher inventory level.