Looking Back and Forward

The Austin area housing market was hot even pre-pandemic. Then came the big chill. Fed rate hikes began in March 2022 and have continued, causing “demand destruction”. As a result we’ve seen increasing numbers of price drops and days on market. Austin area home prices skyrocketed by double digit ranges over the last two years. In 2021 month over month increases during selling season were between 20 - 40%. Those numbers are not sustainable as we have seen.

What’s important to both buyers and sellers are purchase/sold prices. Buyer demand affects that. Of the 75 zip codes in our metro 67% still have less than 4.9 months of inventory, defined as a sellers market. Only 12% have more than 7 months of inventory, defined as a buyers market. So technically we're in a sellers market although weakened and headed to a more neutral market. Where are the average/median sold prices today compared to last year given we have so much more inventory? As of today the average sold price in the metro increased by 11% over 2021. The median sold price increased by over 10%. Both are still increasing but at decelerating rates.

A key metric to look at is sold to list price ratio. The 22 year average puts that number at 98.3%. To date we’re at 96.38. Clearly not bad given current market factors. The charts below show the sold to list price ratio for each of the 30 cities in the metro since Jan of this year. You can check out your own city to see how you’re doing. Or go to Insight and see the Sold/List price ratio for you zip code.

Mortgage interest rates have dropped for 5 weeks. The Feds meet again in mid-January; hopefully any other rate hike will be the same as December or less. That should give us a preview of what rates might be going forward. Ultimately setting the scene for the housing market in the year ahead.


Happy New Year...Bring on 2023!