Heading to the Finish Line

As we approach year end it's a good time to see where our market is relative to where it was earlier in the year. The Austin-Area MLS has more than 13,700 active residential properties for sale and 3,905 pending properties. These numbers change daily of course, but our activity index remains steady at around 22.3%. Activity index is a leading indicator of where the market is as it reflects the absorption rate, or what percent of active listings are going under contract.

We now have an average of 4.75 months of inventory, which is the lowest since March 2024. During the course of the year we’ve seen a shift toward more stable and balanced market relative to inventory and prices. Since real estate is “hyper-local” months of inventory ranges widely across the 30 cities and 75 zip codes within the region. High demand areas will have less than 3 months of inventory, while markets with slower activity can have a substantial 11 months of inventory.​

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Compared to the market peak of May 2022, the average sold price has decreased by -20.37%, actually a good thing since the peak prices were not sustainable long term. Properties are spending an average of 71 days on the market, and over 50% of active listings in the metro have undergone a price drop. The sold-to-list price ratio is 97.11% which is evidence that sellers have become more aggressive with pricing, concessions and negotiations.

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Builders have given sellers in the resale market a lot of competition. With existing inventory they want to move, builders have been buying down interest rates to 3.99 or 4.99% depending upon the builder. Along with those buy downs we've seen offers of cash towards closing costs or upgrades. New construction homes will continue to give the resale market a lot of competition going into 2025.

Seasonal slowdowns are typical. Our selling season starts earlier than other regions of the country. Typically mid-February is when we see more listings appear and spring activity begins in earnest. Some of the decreases in inventory have come from properties that sellers have withdrawn from the market as they weren’t selling; intending to list them again in early spring. What remains to be seen is what levels of inventory we will have going into the new year and where mortgage interest rates will. Both of those factors can have a huge impact on the health of the housing market going forward.